The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
According to NOAA, there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
Forecasters expect between eight and 14 named storms this year. A named storm receives a name when it reaches tropical storm strength, with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
Of those storms, NOAA predicts that three to six could strengthen into hurricanes, with sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. The agency is also forecasting one to three major hurricanes — Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
NOAA says it has 70% confidence in those projections.
For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Why the Forecast Calls for Fewer Storms
A key factor in this year’s outlook is the expected development and strengthening of El Niño conditions during hurricane season. El Niño typically creates atmospheric conditions that suppress tropical storm and hurricane formation in the Atlantic, resulting in fewer storms than during La Niña years.
NOAA emphasized that its seasonal outlook reflects overall hurricane activity across the Atlantic Basin and is not intended to predict where or when storms may make landfall. More specific forecasts will be issued as individual systems develop.
The agency encourages residents to prepare now rather than waiting until a storm threatens their area. Even in a below-average season, a single hurricane can have significant impacts on coastal communities.
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